Dear Sirs,
While I understand how difficult it can be to construct an accurate forecast 100% of the time, your average is well below what one would expect for the North Oregon Coast . If we were to track forecast to actual outcomes over any given period the result would be dismal.
A number of local business and industries depend on accurate weather forecasts. In some cases it is a matter of safety particularly when it's a fishermen deciding to head out to sea that day, or a logging operation where people's lives can depend upon knowing just how the weather will trend over a period where wet, dry or, windy weather can seriously impact operations.
Our tourism industry is a key component of the local economy. It can be a perfect day for a trip to the beach but the forecast doesn't indicate that so our hotels, resorts and camping grounds suffer needlessly.
The astonishing thing to me is that even if the forecast for a particular day is clearly wrong the forecaster in charge rarely changes the report to reflect what is truly happening.
I would strongly suggest that you take some time to analyze your modeling for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington along with your update policies.
Comments expressed
July 31, 2009
July 27, 2009
Commish Hazen Responds
Swiped from Jeff Hazen's Blog:
"I am supportive of the rights of citizens to recall elected officials, however, I believe that the recall system should only be used in cases where illegal acts have occurred. They shouldn't be abused by trying to oust a person based on one issue that they disagree with. People are elected by the majority of voters and the election cycle is the appropriate venue to oust those that they disagree with."
"I believe that the most telling thing about the recall is the fact that the petitioners changed their petition filing the day after the original one was filed. In my case, the county clerk rejected the initial petition due to errors made on it. When she contacted the filers, she also reminded them that by signing the document, they were swearing that the facts that they listed in the petition were true under penalty of law. Lo and behold, they changed the petition and removed everything that they wrote. We all know what the opposite of "truth" is."
http://jeffhazen.blogspot.com/
Commissioner Recall Campaign
Comment from Commissioner Samuelson:
I just want to put a BIG thank you out there for the tremendous support I've received. I've received a number of emails from folks that hesitate to publicly come out in support due to concerns of harassment from some of these folks. I have many stories I'll share as I walk through this experience, but yesterday in particular I felt this recall was happening for a reason, ever get that strong feeling you were in the right place at the right time? I was at Seaside Post office introducing myself to constituents while these folks are spreading lies about me attempting to get signatures and I noticed an elderly man walking across the parking lot, a kid jumped in his pickup without looking and would have backed right over him if I hadn't pounded my fist into the hood of his truck and made him stop!!! My hand is a little sore, and it bend the ring I was wearing, but not bad for day 1 of this fight, met a bunch of great people, received many calls of support to volunteer on my campaign and to donate $$$ and saved a life....oh and he didn't sign the recall petition, I got a hug instead. Bob Hauke gave me 50.00 last night and told me to fight these people...made me cry, he's fighting brain cancer, makes this battle look small in comparison....he is completely selfless, thinking about how these folks are hurting our community rather than himself when he is so very ill.....Love that guy and his wife Marilyn too!!! So ONWARD!!
I just want to put a BIG thank you out there for the tremendous support I've received. I've received a number of emails from folks that hesitate to publicly come out in support due to concerns of harassment from some of these folks. I have many stories I'll share as I walk through this experience, but yesterday in particular I felt this recall was happening for a reason, ever get that strong feeling you were in the right place at the right time? I was at Seaside Post office introducing myself to constituents while these folks are spreading lies about me attempting to get signatures and I noticed an elderly man walking across the parking lot, a kid jumped in his pickup without looking and would have backed right over him if I hadn't pounded my fist into the hood of his truck and made him stop!!! My hand is a little sore, and it bend the ring I was wearing, but not bad for day 1 of this fight, met a bunch of great people, received many calls of support to volunteer on my campaign and to donate $$$ and saved a life....oh and he didn't sign the recall petition, I got a hug instead. Bob Hauke gave me 50.00 last night and told me to fight these people...made me cry, he's fighting brain cancer, makes this battle look small in comparison....he is completely selfless, thinking about how these folks are hurting our community rather than himself when he is so very ill.....Love that guy and his wife Marilyn too!!! So ONWARD!!
July 21, 2009
Crafting A Campaign
THIS MORNING WE HAVE SOME VERY SERIOUS BUSINESS TO DISCUSS. TWO RECALL CAMPAIGNS ARE UNDERWAY AS OF YESTERDAY. CLATSOP COUNTY COMMISSION CHAIR JEFF HAZEN AND COMMISSIONER ANN SAMUELSON ARE THE TARGETS.
THE CAMPAIGN TO GATHER SIGNATURES WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE RECALL CAMPAIGN ITSELF BECAUSE I HAVE NO DOUBT THAT USING TACTICS THIS GROUP HAS USED IN THE PAST FILING THE RECALL TO GATHER SIGNATURES WAS MERELY A FORMALITY.
THE GROUP THAT OPPOSES LNG IS WELL ORGANIZED AND NETWORKED TO SUCH A DEGREE THAT THEY WILL MOST LIKELY TURN IN AN ADEQUATE NUMBER OF VERIFIABLE SIGNATURES BEFORE THE DEADLINE.
THE REAL PROBLEM WILL COME IN THE RECALL ELECTION ITSELF. ONLY THOSE VOTERS IN HAZEN’S DISTRICT AND SAMUELSON’S DISTRICT WILL PARTICIPATE SO WHILE GATHERING AN ADEQUATE NUMBER OF SIGNATURES WON’T BE APROBLEM, THE ELECTION WILL BE. UNLESS THE RECALL GROUP CAN DEFLECT THE LNG ISSUE AND FIND A BROADER BASE.
ONE WAY TO DO THAT IS TO PLAY TO THE MORE CONSERVATIVE VOTER BY PUSHING THE FISCAL ACCOUNTABLITY BUTTON. THIS RECALL GROUP HAS ALEADY REQUESTED ALL EXPENDITURE RECORDS FOR BOTH HAZEN AND SAMUELSON AND WILL LIKELY USE THE TRIP THEY MADE TO WASHINGTON DC TO ATTEND THE FERC MEETING AS AMMUNTION. THEY WILL BUILD ON THAT WITH EVERY REIMBURSEMENT THAT HAS BEEN MADE NO MATTER HOW MINOR TO PUSH THAT CONSERVATIVE BUTTON TIME AND TIME AGAIN.
EVEN THAT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO ENSURE A VICTORY. THEY MAY HAVE TO SWITCH HORSES AND POINT OUT THAT WHILE HAZEN REPRESENTS THE WARRENTON AREA HE HAS NOT TAKEN A STAND
ON THE OREGON LNG PROJECT WHICH MANY WARRENTON AND LEWIS AND CLARK AND YOUNGS RIVER AREA PEOPLE WOULD RATHER SEE. THAT WILL BE A ONE-ON-ONE DOOR TO DOOR CAMPAIGN NOT TO BE PUBLISHED OR BROADCAST.
THESE ARE BEST GUESSES BASED ON HOW THIS SAME GROUP MANIPULATED THE VOTE ON THE SO CALLED PIPELINES IN PARKS INITIATIVE WHICH DURING THE ELECTION THEY STRONGLY DENIED HAD ANYTHING WHATEVER TO DO WITH LNG AND THEN AFTER THE ELECTION THEY USED IT AS A REFERENDUM ON LNG THAT THEY TOOK TO ALL OUR CONGRESSIONAL AND STATE REPRESENTATIVES.
THAT WORKED OUT QUITE WELL FOR THEM AND SINCE THEY KNOW THAT PEOPLE BY AND LARGE ARE EASILY MANIPULATED IN THIS FASHION THEY WILL DO IT AGAIN.
THE QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER OR NOT YOU WILL BUY IT THIS TIME.
THE CAMPAIGN TO GATHER SIGNATURES WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE RECALL CAMPAIGN ITSELF BECAUSE I HAVE NO DOUBT THAT USING TACTICS THIS GROUP HAS USED IN THE PAST FILING THE RECALL TO GATHER SIGNATURES WAS MERELY A FORMALITY.
THE GROUP THAT OPPOSES LNG IS WELL ORGANIZED AND NETWORKED TO SUCH A DEGREE THAT THEY WILL MOST LIKELY TURN IN AN ADEQUATE NUMBER OF VERIFIABLE SIGNATURES BEFORE THE DEADLINE.
THE REAL PROBLEM WILL COME IN THE RECALL ELECTION ITSELF. ONLY THOSE VOTERS IN HAZEN’S DISTRICT AND SAMUELSON’S DISTRICT WILL PARTICIPATE SO WHILE GATHERING AN ADEQUATE NUMBER OF SIGNATURES WON’T BE APROBLEM, THE ELECTION WILL BE. UNLESS THE RECALL GROUP CAN DEFLECT THE LNG ISSUE AND FIND A BROADER BASE.
ONE WAY TO DO THAT IS TO PLAY TO THE MORE CONSERVATIVE VOTER BY PUSHING THE FISCAL ACCOUNTABLITY BUTTON. THIS RECALL GROUP HAS ALEADY REQUESTED ALL EXPENDITURE RECORDS FOR BOTH HAZEN AND SAMUELSON AND WILL LIKELY USE THE TRIP THEY MADE TO WASHINGTON DC TO ATTEND THE FERC MEETING AS AMMUNTION. THEY WILL BUILD ON THAT WITH EVERY REIMBURSEMENT THAT HAS BEEN MADE NO MATTER HOW MINOR TO PUSH THAT CONSERVATIVE BUTTON TIME AND TIME AGAIN.
EVEN THAT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO ENSURE A VICTORY. THEY MAY HAVE TO SWITCH HORSES AND POINT OUT THAT WHILE HAZEN REPRESENTS THE WARRENTON AREA HE HAS NOT TAKEN A STAND
ON THE OREGON LNG PROJECT WHICH MANY WARRENTON AND LEWIS AND CLARK AND YOUNGS RIVER AREA PEOPLE WOULD RATHER SEE. THAT WILL BE A ONE-ON-ONE DOOR TO DOOR CAMPAIGN NOT TO BE PUBLISHED OR BROADCAST.
THESE ARE BEST GUESSES BASED ON HOW THIS SAME GROUP MANIPULATED THE VOTE ON THE SO CALLED PIPELINES IN PARKS INITIATIVE WHICH DURING THE ELECTION THEY STRONGLY DENIED HAD ANYTHING WHATEVER TO DO WITH LNG AND THEN AFTER THE ELECTION THEY USED IT AS A REFERENDUM ON LNG THAT THEY TOOK TO ALL OUR CONGRESSIONAL AND STATE REPRESENTATIVES.
THAT WORKED OUT QUITE WELL FOR THEM AND SINCE THEY KNOW THAT PEOPLE BY AND LARGE ARE EASILY MANIPULATED IN THIS FASHION THEY WILL DO IT AGAIN.
THE QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER OR NOT YOU WILL BUY IT THIS TIME.
The Latest Recall
Those who oppose LNG storage facilities here have mounted a campaign to oust Clatsop County Commission Chair Jeff Hazen and Commissioner Ann Samuelson today.
This recall is in response to the latest board decision to move forward with the Bradwood Landing proposal by once again approving findings remanded back to the board by the state land use board of appeals. When the vote was taken those in the opposition in the audience shouted out "Recall" in a well orchestrated response to the 4 to 1 decision.
As far as recalls go this isn't Commissioner Samuelson's first time at the rodeo. For Hazen it's a first for someone who has donated much of his time to the role of both commissioner and chairman. I checked his blog and he is silent on this issue preferring to focus on those interesting and positive things about life in general.
The question here is whether or not these two particular people truly represent the will of the majority of the public they represent or have they gone maverick?
I find it very interesting that while the vote was 4 to 1 only two of the commissioners voting in favor face a recall petition. Commissioner Raichl would be a formidable person to recall. Patricia Roberts is safe because people in her south county district don't give a hoot about this one way or the other.
The lone dissenting vote came from Commissioner Dirk Rohne whose district includes the proposed Bradwood Landing LNG site. Is he off the mark on this? His district would benefit
financially from the project but he sets that neatly aside. Why? Rohne expressed serious concerns over whether fish and traditional fishing grounds would be "protected" under the strict interpretation of state land use definition. He also said the the turning basin needed to be considered as part of the overall scope of the project which brings the size of the project into serious question by expanding the footprint from dry land to submerged land. Commissioner Samuelson in seeking clarification asked if that could be considered and was told that the regulation in question doesn't cover the submerged lands. The only issue to be considered was the dry land footprint of the project.
So here we go again.
Next up lets do an analysis of this election based on what we've seen this group do before.
This recall is in response to the latest board decision to move forward with the Bradwood Landing proposal by once again approving findings remanded back to the board by the state land use board of appeals. When the vote was taken those in the opposition in the audience shouted out "Recall" in a well orchestrated response to the 4 to 1 decision.
As far as recalls go this isn't Commissioner Samuelson's first time at the rodeo. For Hazen it's a first for someone who has donated much of his time to the role of both commissioner and chairman. I checked his blog and he is silent on this issue preferring to focus on those interesting and positive things about life in general.
The question here is whether or not these two particular people truly represent the will of the majority of the public they represent or have they gone maverick?
I find it very interesting that while the vote was 4 to 1 only two of the commissioners voting in favor face a recall petition. Commissioner Raichl would be a formidable person to recall. Patricia Roberts is safe because people in her south county district don't give a hoot about this one way or the other.
The lone dissenting vote came from Commissioner Dirk Rohne whose district includes the proposed Bradwood Landing LNG site. Is he off the mark on this? His district would benefit
financially from the project but he sets that neatly aside. Why? Rohne expressed serious concerns over whether fish and traditional fishing grounds would be "protected" under the strict interpretation of state land use definition. He also said the the turning basin needed to be considered as part of the overall scope of the project which brings the size of the project into serious question by expanding the footprint from dry land to submerged land. Commissioner Samuelson in seeking clarification asked if that could be considered and was told that the regulation in question doesn't cover the submerged lands. The only issue to be considered was the dry land footprint of the project.
So here we go again.
Next up lets do an analysis of this election based on what we've seen this group do before.
July 20, 2009
AAC Meeting Today
Holiday Inn will host a meeting of the Astoria Aquatic Center supporters this afternoon at 5:30pm.
Consultant J.P. Moss is scheduled to be at the meeting to report on the status of the facility and the many improvements that have been made along with those still to come.
One of the issues he has identified is establishing a mechanism for people who would like to help at the center or assist in fundraising. This may be an opportunity to get involved or at the very least hear what is going on directly from the guy who is bailing the Aquatic Center out of it's long-standing issues as quickly as possible.
Following that meeting Moss will appear before the Astoria City Council to render a report on the center for the elected leadership.
Consultant J.P. Moss is scheduled to be at the meeting to report on the status of the facility and the many improvements that have been made along with those still to come.
One of the issues he has identified is establishing a mechanism for people who would like to help at the center or assist in fundraising. This may be an opportunity to get involved or at the very least hear what is going on directly from the guy who is bailing the Aquatic Center out of it's long-standing issues as quickly as possible.
Following that meeting Moss will appear before the Astoria City Council to render a report on the center for the elected leadership.
July 17, 2009
The Performance Tax
Radio is still the first choice for music. In this era of downloading it might seem that radio takes a back seat but statistics show that the majority of Americans still turn on their favorite station to enjoy a ready-made mix of favorites because it's free.
For new artists getting radio play is vital. Established artists would tell you that radio is the engine that keeps their career running.
Congress may end up changing all that. The Performance Tax is sold as a way to compensate artists for their work each time a song is played. The reality is that this didn't come from the song writers and singers. This came from the record labels looking for yet another revenue stream which they would "share" with the artist. Radio stations already pay a considerable amount for the right to play licenced music and we write a hefty check every quarter to licencing agencies BMI and ASCAP which is the mechanism to pay the labels and the artists.
If the Performance Tax should be passed it would spell the end of music stations, particularly in smaller communities like ours.
This would affect all radio stations so this isn't just about our classic rocker KCRX or our country station KVAS (The Eagle). Regardless of which station here might be your favorite this tax will affect that station's ability to continue to offer music. It would at very least severely restrict the number of songs that could be played in the course of the day.
Our congressional delegation, with the exception of Greg Walden, are not paying attention to this issue. Listed on this page is all the contact information for our U.S. Senators and Representatives. Please take some time to write or call them and let them know you appreciate and value your favorite music station and ask them to fight the Performance Tax.
For new artists getting radio play is vital. Established artists would tell you that radio is the engine that keeps their career running.
Congress may end up changing all that. The Performance Tax is sold as a way to compensate artists for their work each time a song is played. The reality is that this didn't come from the song writers and singers. This came from the record labels looking for yet another revenue stream which they would "share" with the artist. Radio stations already pay a considerable amount for the right to play licenced music and we write a hefty check every quarter to licencing agencies BMI and ASCAP which is the mechanism to pay the labels and the artists.
If the Performance Tax should be passed it would spell the end of music stations, particularly in smaller communities like ours.
This would affect all radio stations so this isn't just about our classic rocker KCRX or our country station KVAS (The Eagle). Regardless of which station here might be your favorite this tax will affect that station's ability to continue to offer music. It would at very least severely restrict the number of songs that could be played in the course of the day.
Our congressional delegation, with the exception of Greg Walden, are not paying attention to this issue. Listed on this page is all the contact information for our U.S. Senators and Representatives. Please take some time to write or call them and let them know you appreciate and value your favorite music station and ask them to fight the Performance Tax.
July 16, 2009
Found One!
Still researching but we may have found that one shining example of a government service consolidation that works.
Take a look at the Tualatin Valley Fire District.
Meanwhile todays poll on www.kast1370.com asks if you support Astoria joining up with the Seaside Rec district. So far 83% say YES. The poll will be open for a few more days so log on.
Take a look at the Tualatin Valley Fire District.
Meanwhile todays poll on www.kast1370.com asks if you support Astoria joining up with the Seaside Rec district. So far 83% say YES. The poll will be open for a few more days so log on.
July 15, 2009
EARTH FIRST!
So what are they up to?
The more radical elements that have moved into the area over the last few years are obviously gearing up for a fight of some kind. It may not be about timber sales or animal rights this time.
It may be about the next logical step in the fight against the energy industry. The LNG opposition has fought a delaying battle for several years. Now that the Bradwood Landing project is entering the final phases heading to a construction date could it be that the radicals will be chaining themselves to cement trucks and disrupting every aspect of the construction?
It's entirely possible.
The more radical elements that have moved into the area over the last few years are obviously gearing up for a fight of some kind. It may not be about timber sales or animal rights this time.
It may be about the next logical step in the fight against the energy industry. The LNG opposition has fought a delaying battle for several years. Now that the Bradwood Landing project is entering the final phases heading to a construction date could it be that the radicals will be chaining themselves to cement trucks and disrupting every aspect of the construction?
It's entirely possible.
July 14, 2009
Consolidate It All
I wish I could dredge up at least one shining example of how consolidating government services has worked to the effect people hope. If you know of one leave your comment. I've googled everything I can think might apply to a search for good government practices that might reveal at least one example. Every time I think I've found one it turns out that instead of controlling the growth, saving dollars and providing acceptable services the effect is the opposite.
In fact, the more you consolidate the less accountable and efficient the service becomes. Initital cost savings that come with dropping top level managers is quickly absorbed by other cost increases over time until you are in worse shape than when you started.
Maybe nobody has come up with the right formula. I suspect that failure is inherent if you approach service consolidation with the idea that you are simply absorbing one service into another. You can't consolidate a school district, or multiple Police agencies like you are building
a mega store and closing smaller ones. The dynamic is different. The public demands are different which puts more pressure on the mega agency you have created to deliver at least the same level of service when it is likely it just can't.
If it was possible to sell the public on the idea that consolidation is about survival and not about
enhancement then maybe expectations would be lower.
That's a very tough sell even though it is honest.
In fact, the more you consolidate the less accountable and efficient the service becomes. Initital cost savings that come with dropping top level managers is quickly absorbed by other cost increases over time until you are in worse shape than when you started.
Maybe nobody has come up with the right formula. I suspect that failure is inherent if you approach service consolidation with the idea that you are simply absorbing one service into another. You can't consolidate a school district, or multiple Police agencies like you are building
a mega store and closing smaller ones. The dynamic is different. The public demands are different which puts more pressure on the mega agency you have created to deliver at least the same level of service when it is likely it just can't.
If it was possible to sell the public on the idea that consolidation is about survival and not about
enhancement then maybe expectations would be lower.
That's a very tough sell even though it is honest.
July 09, 2009
New Service Coming
If you are a member of our station website listener club you will be seeing something new in your email inbox in the next few days. The KAST E-Blast newsletter fulfills our promise to members of our listener club that they will get first word on local news developments. The newsletter is designed to be a quick summary with active links to full stories on the website.
Joining the KAST Listener club is free and gives you access to on demand audio in addition to the newsletter. If you are already a member then you don't have to do anything else. If you haven't joined then log on to www.kast1370.com and click the register link. Just that simple.
Joining the KAST Listener club is free and gives you access to on demand audio in addition to the newsletter. If you are already a member then you don't have to do anything else. If you haven't joined then log on to www.kast1370.com and click the register link. Just that simple.
July 05, 2009
Out With The Old....
The proboards powered Open Forum message board has been sent the way of the dinosaurs today.
We have something far better in the works. I'll let you know when we launch.
We have something far better in the works. I'll let you know when we launch.
July 04, 2009
Chelsea Williams In Concert
She's fresh, funny, creative.
At 23 years old Chelsea laughingly says she's now "over the hill" in the music business. I don't think so.
Last night Lektro owner Eric Paulson opened his impressive home to host a private concert to benefit the Clatsop County Historical Society.
Chelsea is a California girl and told the audience of local notables that while she works on getting her career launched she still makes ends meet by being a street performer in Santa Monica which she says is an art form all by itself.
She tends toward a folk-country style with the emphasis on love songs which she says she's hooked on.
It's in her own songs that you hear the strong storyteller in her lyrics. A new one is "I stole your boots" in which she admits she was missing her boyfriend so she stole articles of his clothing and "took them out on the town" to feel closer to him..may sound a little creepy but she pulls it off with great humor. She really pleased the crowd by pulling out an old Hank Williams song and performed his style dead-on.
NNB Radio is bringing Chelsea Williams to the Warrenton Fourth Of July with a free outdoor concert this afternoon at 4:30pm. That will be in an open field between our new studio building and city hall over on Main Court. Come see her. I think you'll like her.
July 01, 2009
The Sky: Will It Fall?
Ask any of the anti-LNG crowd and the answer isn't just "yes" it's a resounding "hell yes".
After all, it's very important to keep fear alive when you are battling a big energy company that has the nerve to go through years and years and years of being roasted over a slow fire just to bring in a billion dollar project that will shore up our faltering local economy. The fear factor is vital if you plan to unseat local and state office-holders
The same people who brought you a Port Commissioner who couldn't even complete her term is positioning itself to take more (apparently temporary) control of local and state politics and the LNG issue.
I can't wait for the Peter Hutula campaign for state rep to kick into full swing. I wonder who will be angling for the County Commission?
After all, it's very important to keep fear alive when you are battling a big energy company that has the nerve to go through years and years and years of being roasted over a slow fire just to bring in a billion dollar project that will shore up our faltering local economy. The fear factor is vital if you plan to unseat local and state office-holders
The same people who brought you a Port Commissioner who couldn't even complete her term is positioning itself to take more (apparently temporary) control of local and state politics and the LNG issue.
I can't wait for the Peter Hutula campaign for state rep to kick into full swing. I wonder who will be angling for the County Commission?
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